15:05 - 16.10.2026

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October 16, Fineko/abc.az. According to Ministry of Finance's Medium-term Spending Framework for 2027-2030, taking into account actual inflation, declining global commodity and food prices, stable exchange rates, and the impact of regulated tariffs, it is expected that average annual inflation, projected in the baseline scenario at 5.7% this year, will gradually decrease to 4.3% by 2030.

To assess the impact of price changes on nominal GDP and budget indicators, the document calculates scenarios for deviations from the baseline forecast in positive and negative directions by 0.4, 0.8, 1.1 and 1.5 percentage points.

In this regard, it is predicted that next year, under various inflation scenarios, the balance of the consolidated budget will change within 0.1–0.3 p.p., and in 2027, the ratio of the non-oil base deficit to non–oil GDP will be within 0.1-0.4 p.p.