IMF raises inflation forecast on Azerbaijan for 2027

10:40 - 13.10.2026

October 13, Fineko/abc.az. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its forecasts for average annual inflation in Azerbaijan in its October report "Prospects for the development of the global economy".

According to IMF's estimates, the average annual inflation in the country will be 5.8% in 2026 and 5.6% in 2027. Compared with the April forecast, the IMF lowered its inflation estimate for the current year by 0.2 percentage points, while raising its forecast for next year by 0.5 p.p.

According to the State Statistics Committee, annual inflation slowed to 5.5% in September, while the average increase in consumer prices for Jan-Sept was 5.7%. The largest price growth was recorded in the food sector - 6.9%.

The IMF also forecasts inflation in other countries in the region. In 2026 and 2027, it will be 5.4% and 3.6% respectively in Georgia, 4.6% and 3.6% in Armenia, 10.3% and 8.2% in Kazakhstan, 6.9% and 5.7% in Uzbekistan, 12.7% and 14.3% in Kyrgyzstan, 4.1% and 4.8% in Tajikistan, 5.6% and 4.3% in Turkmenistan.

The current inflation rate in Azerbaijan remains within the target range of the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) at 4±2%. On September 23, the regulator kept the discount rate at 6.5%, the upper limit of the interest rate range at 7.5%, reducing the lower limit to 5%.

In July, the Central Bank raised its inflation forecast to 6.1% by the end of 2026 and to 5.8% by the end of 2027, taking into account external price factors and risks in global markets. The regulator will announce the next decision on the parameters of the interest rate corridor on October 29.

Forecasts of other international organizations and financial institutions also vary. According to the September forecast of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the average annual inflation in Azerbaijan will be 5.9% in 2026 and 5% in 2027.

Fitch Ratings forecasts inflation at 6.1% in 2026, 5.6% in 2027 and 4.9% in 2028. ING Group Financial Group from the Netherlands expects average annual inflation to be 5.8% in 2026 and 5.6% in 2027.